Commercial real estate (CRE) has long been held as a means to help hedge portfolios and provide diversification. The thesis was proven true once again in 2022, with CRE posting modest gains as stocks and bonds fell in lockstep1. Turning the calendar to the early stages of 2023 however, investors may find themselves confronting market dynamics that paint a difficult picture for traditional CRE investors, most notably in the office sector. There is another way to invest in real estate that may shield investors from these challenges.
Pending maturities. 18% of all commercial mortgages are due to mature in 2023 and 2024, totaling more than $1 trillion.2 The rate environment in which these refinancings need to be executed is materially higher than when these loans were originated 5+ years ago.
Scarcity of available capital. Regional banks, which have historically been big providers of capital to CRE investors, are expected to be less active in today’s market environment,4 creating further challenges.
Deteriorating topline performance. Return to office momentum stalled over the past 12 months and has reached only 50% of pre-COVID occupancy to date, up modestly from 40% at year-end 2021. With declining occupancy and utilization, weakening gross rent becomes a real risk.3
Increasing expenses. Depending on geography, we have observed dramatic increases in insurance, tax, and general & administrative (“G&A”) expenses, which may further aggravate the other negative trends in the segment.
Blue Owl’s real estate platform, formerly known as Oak Street, takes an approach to real estate investment that seeks to provide insulation from many of these concerns. In a triple net lease (“NNN”), the tenant is responsible for all property operating and capital expenditures. Blue Owl receives rent, net of all expenses including repairs, maintenance, insurance, and real estate taxes, and passes it on to investors in the form of monthly distributions.
Office Assets | ORENT Assets | |
---|---|---|
Cell label Occupancy | Cell label 60-80%, tending downwards | Cell label 100% |
Cell label Average Lease Term | Cell label 3-5 Years | Cell label 24 years with annual NOI Escalations |
Cell label Exposure to Increased Expenses | Cell label High | Cell label None |
Cell label Tenant Credit Quality | Cell label Not limited to Investment Grade & Creditworthy | Cell label Creditworthy, often Investment Grade5 |
Clarity on future revenue. Our focus on mission-critical assets, structured with long-term triple net leases (15-year average term) to single tenants, is designed to help deliver consistent cash flows.
Minimal office exposure, and owned office assets are performing. While there are signs of stress in office generally,6 ORENT is underweight the asset class with an allocation of 6.9%. The office assets in the portfolio are performing, with no missed rent payments since inception.
Potential Insulation from expense growth. Under a triple net lease, any increases in expenses are 100% contractually borne by the tenant.
Risk mitigation through tenant selection. As landlords to single tenant properties, we are focused on tenants, not issues facing landlords. We only transact with creditworthy, often investment grade tenants5 and our rigorous underwriting gives is conviction that the tenant can pay rent for a 10+ year duration.
Looking back on prior periods of market distress, including the Global Financial Crisis, net lease investment grade real estate has a track record of strong performance.
The net lease strategy employed by ORENT is highly differentiated and can be complementary to other core real estate strategies, while offering a compelling return profile. With a focus on long-term predictable income, downside risk mitigation, and a hedge against rising expenses, ORENT can help insulate portfolios from the challenges in broader CRE markets.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of Blue Owl and are subject to change as markets and other conditions fluctuate. Blue Owl is under no obligation to update or keep current the information presented.
Endnote
Important information
Unless otherwise indicated, the Report Date referenced herein is Septetmber 30, 2023.
The material presented is proprietary information regarding Blue Owl Capital Inc. (“Blue Owl”), its affiliates and investment program, funds sponsored by Blue Owl, including the Blue Owl Credit, GP Strategic Capital Funds and the Real Estate Funds (collectively the “Blue Owl Funds”) as well as investment held by the Blue Owl Funds.
The views expressed and, except as otherwise indicated, the information provided are as of the report date and are subject to change, update, revision, verification, and amendment, materially or otherwise, without notice, as market or other conditions change. Since these conditions can change frequent verification, frequently, there can be no assurance that the trends described herein will continue or that any forecasts are accurate. In addition, certain of the statements, contained in this webpage may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on the current views and assumptions of Blue Owl and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties (including those discussed below) that could cause actual results, performance, or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. These statements may be forward-looking by reason of context, or identified by words such as “may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue” and other similar expressions. Neither Blue Owl, its affiliates, nor any of Blue Owl’s or its affiliates’ respective advisers, members, directors, officers, partners, agents, representatives or employees or any other person (collectively the “Blue Owl Entities”) is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this document.
The information presented contains case studies and other discussions of selected investments made by Blue Owl Funds. These discussions provide descriptions and certain key aspects of such investments presented for informational purposes only and are intended to illustrate Blue Owl’s sourcing experience and the profile and types of investments and investment strategies which may be pursued by Blue Owl. The types and performance of these investments (i) are not representative of the types and performance of all investments or investment strategies that have been made or recommended by Blue Owl and (ii) are not necessarily indicative of the types and performance of investments that Blue Owl may seek to make, or be able to make, in the future. Any future investment vehicle that Blue Owl may sponsor or advise in the future, may pursue and consummate different types of investments in different concentrations, than those selected for illustrative purposes in this webpage. Further, references to investments included in illustrative case studies are presented to illustrate Blue Owl’s investment processes only and should not be construed as a recommendation of any particular investment. Past performance of any investment described in these illustrative case studies is not indicative of future results that may be obtained by any Blue Owl funds, and there can be no assurance that any such fund or other vehicle will achieve comparable results.
This webpage contains information from third party sources which Blue Owl has not verified. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Blue Owl Entities as to the accuracy, fairness, correctness or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this by webpage and no liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) is accepted by the Blue Owl Entities for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of this webpage or its contents, or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
All investments are subject to risk, including the loss of the principal amount invested. These risks may include limited operating history, uncertain distributions, inconsistent valuation of the portfolio, changing interest rates, leveraging of assets, reliance on the investment advisor, potential conflicts of interest, payment of substantial fees to the investment advisor and the dealer manager, potential illiquidity, and liquidation at more or less than the original amount invested. Diversification will not guarantee profitability or protection against loss. Performance may be volatile, and the NAV may fluctuate.
This webpage is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to sell or subscribe for any fund and does not constitute investment, legal, regulatory, business, tax, financial, accounting, or other advice or a recommendation regarding any securities of Blue Owl, of any fund or vehicle managed by Blue Owl, or of any other issuer of securities. Only a definitive offering document (i.e.: Prospectus or Private Placement Memorandum) can make such an offer.
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